The scope of the work is as following:
· To assess the performance of at least 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of Couple Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate historical observation for period of 1981-2010 using reference data provided/recommended by DHM.
ü Undertake review of available literatures, reports and documents.
ü Interpolate monthly data (Precipitation and mean temperature) of climate models at resolution of reference dataset recommended by DHM for Nepal for historical period.
ü Skill assessment of historical simulations of GCMs based on reference dataset for Nepal.
ü Selection of four best performing models for Nepal based on the skill scores.
· To downscale daily data (Precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature) of best performing four models statistically for historical (1981-2010) and future period (2021- 2100, Scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) at 0.25°x0.25° spatial resolution or recommended by DHM covering whole Nepal. Statistical downscaling method shall be as recommended by DHM.
· To perform following analysis of precipitation and temperature of downscaled model’s and their ensemble mean for future three tri-decadal periods (2021-2050, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) under two emission scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) at national, provincial and district level; and physiographic level.
ü Spatial and temporal analysis (mean, standard deviation, spread) of the best performing models’ simulation and their ensemble data.
ü Trend analysis of reference dataset, individual model’s simulations and their ensemble data (monthly, seasonal and annual) including long-term period (2021- 2100) at national level.
ü Extreme indices (as mentioned in Annex I) analysis.
ü Trend analysis of extreme indices.
· To prepare manual for data analysis and visualization including codes used for analysis.
· To provide tools/programme used in the data analysis in digital format.
To provide all the datasets used in the study in digital format.
